The civilisation-scale scenario engine

What happens when something reaches civilisation scale?

Start from what is known, change one assumption, and watch what it implies for the planet. Every number here is labelled, so a guess can never pass for a fact.

Factpublished, source namedEstimatederived from facts, working shownAssumptionyours to changeScenariowhat follows — not a forecast
Scenario 1

If AI’s appetite for electricity keeps growing…

Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024 — around 1.5% of the world’s electricity. The IEA’s base case has that growing around 15% a year to 2030. What if growth is faster, slower, or lasts longer?

Scenario 2

When does the electric car become the car?

More than 17 million electric cars were sold in 2024, more than one in five new cars. If EV sales keep growing faster than the car market, when do they equal it?

Scenario 3

Trillions a year, for decades.

About $2.2 trillion went into clean-energy technologies in 2025 — twice the amount going to oil, gas and coal. Add it up over a generation.

Scenario 4 · build your own

Any market, at planetary scale.

People × how many adopt × what each spends a year. Then grow it, set it against the whole world economy, and see how sensitive it is to your two biggest guesses.

The quadrillion clock

How long does it take the whole world to make a quadrillion?

Add up world output year after year, from 2026. The world produced about $118 trillion in 2025 Fact. Set the growth, and see when the running total passes $1,000 trillion.

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How to read this site

Are these forecasts?

No. A scenario is what follows if your assumptions hold. The sensitivity ranges show how quickly the answer moves when they don’t. Nobody knows these futures — including the organisations whose baseline figures we use.

Where do the facts come from?

Each fact card names its source and date: the IEA (energy, AI electricity, electric cars), the IMF (world GDP) and the UN (population). Where a figure is itself an estimate by that organisation, the card says so.

How is QuadrillionEuro different from TrillionEuro?

TrillionEuro is for building things: a scale ladder and unit economics for one idea. QuadrillionEuro is for thinking about the whole planet: technologies and markets at a size where they change energy systems and economies.

Is anything stored or sold?

No accounts, nothing stored on our side. Anonymous, cookie-free page analytics only.